Africa faces 86 Million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040 — AFC Report

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 Key points

• Africa’s fuel import dependence projected to rise to 86 million tonnes by 2040.
• Ongoing Middle East tensions expose vulnerability to global supply chokepoints.
• Experts call for investment in refining capacity, energy infrastructure, and local production.

Main story

NAIROBI — Africa is projected to face an 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, highlighting deep structural vulnerabilities in the continent’s energy supply chain, according to a report by the Africa Finance Corporation.

The report, released on Thursday in Nairobi, noted that Africa currently imports more than 70 per cent of its refined fuel, alongside approximately $230 billion worth of essential commodities annually, including food, plastics, steel, and fertiliser.

It projected that the continent’s reliance on imported fuel would increase from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040 — a volume equivalent to nearly three large-scale refineries such as those operated by the Dangote Group in Nigeria.

Speaking at the launch, the Chief Economist of the AFC, Rita Babihuga-Nsanze, said recent geopolitical tensions had underscored Africa’s exposure to global supply disruptions.

She pointed to the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime route responsible for about one-fifth of global fuel transport—which has been severely impacted by the ongoing Middle East conflict, triggering supply concerns for import-dependent African economies, particularly in the eastern region.

Babihuga-Nsanze warned that the disruption had led to fuel shortages and could further strain access to fertilisers, many of which are sourced from the Gulf region.

The issues

Africa’s heavy reliance on imported refined fuel and essential commodities exposes it to external shocks, including geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions. Limited domestic refining capacity, weak infrastructure, and underutilised natural resources further compound the challenge.

What’s being said

Babihuga-Nsanze described the continent’s vulnerabilities as paradoxical, noting that Africa holds about 80 per cent of global phosphate reserves — a key input for fertiliser production — yet contributes only 20 per cent to global output.

She stressed that the current crisis presents an opportunity for Africa to scale up local production and reduce dependence on imports.

The report also highlighted inefficiencies in existing energy infrastructure, citing examples such as hydropower in Angola that remains unconnected to regional grids and Zambian dams that are ill-equipped to handle evolving climate conditions.

What’s next

The AFC is advocating for the development of new energy hubs, expansion of refining capacity, and improved performance of existing infrastructure across the continent. Policymakers are also expected to prioritise investments that enhance energy security and regional integration.

Bottom line

Africa’s projected fuel shortfall underscores an urgent need for strategic investment in energy infrastructure and local production, as continued dependence on imports leaves the continent exposed to global disruptions and economic instability.