What’s happening with Trump’s Carroll appeal at Supreme Court?

Welcome back, Deadline: Legal Newsletter readers. E. Jean Carroll was in the news this week, with reports of a Trump Justice Department probe that could ensnare the 82-year-old who won tens of millions of dollars in civil damages against the president. It’s unclear exactly what the DOJ is looking into or how a prosecution against Carroll could succeed if it tries to bring one.

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The Donald Trump-backed U.S. attorney in Chicago denied that he’s investigating her. Some of the latest reporting suggests the government is more focused on a Chicago-based nonprofit tied to billionaire Democratic donor Reid Hoffman that funded part of her litigation. CNN, which first reported on the inquiry, said that even after the U.S. attorney’s denial, its sources maintained that the DOJ was focused on whether Carroll committed perjury in a deposition regarding her litigation funding.

Hoffman, for his part, said he “will not bend the knee” to the president, who he said “is investigating me because I supported E Jean’s lawsuit.”

Whatever comes of any criminal probe, it’s a good time to check in on something we know is definitely happening: The president is trying to get the Supreme Court to reverse the damages Carroll won in that civil litigation. His effort involves two separate but related appeals that are at different stages of the process. The bottom line is that it could be months until we learn whether the justices want to review Trump’s claims or, instead, allow the lower court rulings against him to stand and let Carroll start collecting.

The first Supreme Court petition Trump filed is in the case where a New York jury awarded Carroll $5 million after it found him liable for sexually abusing her in 1996 and defaming her in 2022. The president’s lawyers lodged the petition in November, arguing that evidence was wrongly admitted against him, including the “Access Hollywood” tape in which he bragged about grabbing women by their genitals. The high court keeps rescheduling the petition from being considered at the justices’ private conferences where they decide whether to grant or deny review of appeals.

The court doesn’t explain why it reschedules petitions. The reason for doing so can only be speculated about in real time and is better understood in retrospect after the court finally acts.

All we know for sure right now is that the court was not unanimous about immediately wanting to reject Trump’s petition. That might not sound like much and, to be sure, it doesn’t guarantee what the justices will ultimately do. But it’s more than most petitioners have going for them. That’s because most petitions are quickly denied without any procedural quirks along the way. So, the serial rescheduling of Trump’s petition is a better signal for him than for Carroll. But, again, it doesn’t mean the justices will grant review of his petition or ultimately side with him if they do. It takes four justices to grant review and, of course, a majority of the nine justices to win in the end.

One speculative explanation for the court continually punting on considering Trump’s petition is that at least one justice or some unknown number of justices want to wait until the second petition is fully briefed before they decide what to do with both cases. The second petition is coming in the case where Carroll won $83.3 million in defamation damages.

In a court filing earlier this month, one of Trump’s personal lawyers described that petition as “upcoming” after losing in the appeals court like he did in the $5 million case. There’s no reason to doubt that the $83.3 million petition is coming because he wants to upend the latest lower court ruling that keeps him on the hook for those damages.

The second petition not only involves more money but also raises legal issues that the justices are more prone to care about than the evidentiary claims the president raised in the $5 million petition. In the filing signaling the forthcoming petition in the $83.3 million case, which stems from statements Trump made while he was in his first term as president, he said that among his claims are ones involving presidential immunity and whether the federal government could intervene on his behalf in the case. On that second point, the DOJ said it’s bringing its own Supreme Court petition to press that intervention issue, too. So, Trump will have support from the government in his personal appeal.