Trump’s deal the war with Iran doesn’t resolve anything

After a few dozen false starts, it looks like the United States and Iran have finally struck a framework agreement to pause the war for another two months, stabilize global energy prices and re-open detailed negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump, in typical fashion, announced the accord on Truth Social, claiming it would put the Middle East on the road to peace. He quickly gave several interviews where he reiterated yet again that more U.S. military action was in the cards if Tehran didn’t satisfy its end of the bargain. 

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For once, the Trump administration and the Iranians are singing from the same song-sheet. Both declared that a signing ceremony would take place this Friday, and while the actual text of the agreement hasn’t been published yet, both sides sketched out its general parameters.

The framework is similar to what has been reported for weeks now. The U.S. Navy would suspend its blockade of Iran’s ports in exchange for Tehran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz over the next 30 days. The Iranians insist that Washington also agreed to unfreeze billions of dollars of Tehran’s own money currently frozen in foreign bank accounts courtesy of U.S. sanctions (the Trump administration has yet to verify those assertions). The ceasefire originally signed on April 8 will officially be extended for another 60 days. And, to Tehran’s delight, the ceasefire will encompass the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

On its face, stopping the fighting, at least for another two months, is a win for all sides. The war has hurt every one of its combatants mightily. More than 7,500 people have been killed. Trump’s approval ratings have gone down the tubes as Americans of all political affiliations question the war and the resulting rise in gas prices. Iran has been losing billions of dollars in oil revenue every week. 

Even countries that didn’t want anything to do with the fighting felt the war’s negative impact. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan were all victims of Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. Washington’s traditional European allies, none of whom believed this war was a good idea, faced spiraling fuel costs and an angry American president who demanded they bail him out of his own predicament. 

Given all that, a deal – any deal – is the best possible option on the table. It is certainly a better alternative than Trump renewing a bombing campaign in the unlikely hope that Tehran capitulates. 

Yet we shouldn’t get carried away and treat this framework as an unmitigated success for the United States. The U.S. fought a war of choice for six weeks, then paused it for a few months, only to end it (for now) by kicking the hard problems down the road to a later date.

Trump will likely claim this agreement is better than the one negotiated under Barack Obama. It’s probably only a matter of time before the president insists he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for ending a war he started in the first place. But there’s no sense putting lipstick on a pig. This arrangement is a stop-gap measure to buy time for a longer, technically complicated negotiation between two historical adversaries on Iran’s nuclear program, the very issue that purportedly compelled Trump to wage the conflict about four months ago.

Daniel R. DePetris

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.