Oil shocks pushed Nigeria’s inflation to 15.93% – Report

Nigeria’s hard-fought, 11-month disinflation streak officially ground to a halt in March 2026, as a fresh wave of global energy disruptions forced headline inflation back on an upward trajectory, ultimately hitting 15.93 per cent in May.

This revelation is according to the newly released Meristem 2026 Half-Year Outlook, tagged “Stability Meets Uncertainty, Reprising Risks, Sustaining Growth,” which was officially released by Meristem on Wednesday.

The sudden reversal has been heavily tied to “Operation Epic Fury,” a 38-day joint United States-Israeli military campaign against Iran that commenced on 28 February 2026. The military action led to the effective closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, triggering a massive global energy shock that drove Brent crude prices above $110 per barrel at its peak.

“The global oil shock trickled down into higher domestic fuel and transportation costs,” market analysts noted in the report, highlighting the swift transmission of international energy volatility into the local Nigerian economy.

The inflationary pressure comes despite a strong macroeconomic showing elsewhere in the country. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product expanded 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, marking its fastest Q1 growth pace in a decade.

This exp ansion was predominantly driven by vibrant non-oil sectors, including telecommunications and financial services. Furthermore, a surging trade surplus and robust portfolio inflows propelled Nigeria’s foreign reserves across the $50bn milestone in June, for the first time since 2009.

However, the domestic oil sector has struggled to capitalise fully on the high global prices. Maintenance activities at major facilities, such as the Bonga field, kept first-half crude production at a crawl. While output gradually recovered to 1.70 million barrels per day in May, it remained safely below the Federal Government’s budgetary benchmark of 1.84mbpd.

The resurgence of inflation in Nigeria mirrors a broader global trend, as central banks worldwide have been forced to pivot. The era of monetary easing has faced abrupt interruptions, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan delivering surprise 25-basis-point rate hikes to combat energy-driven price hikes.

With central banks shifting to a “higher for longer” interest rate stance to contain these reignited inflation fears, the report notes that Nigerian policymakers face the delicate task of balancing robust domestic growth against compounding, energy-induced living costs in the second half of the year.