New York Democratic primaries: 5 key takeaways

Anger at the status quo is at a fever pitch

“There’s a clear sense on the left that establishment Democrats haven’t done enough — that they have not fought as intensely or run as forcefully as they should have — during such a consequential and chaotic time for the country,” as MS NOW’s Hunter Woodall and Shawna Thomas wrote. “That opened a window for Mamdani and his allies to channel the political revolution rooted in Bernie Sanders-style progressivism into something that could continue to pull Democrats into a far different direction than the cautious center they have maintained as a safe harbor for decades.”

Pro-Gaza politics and criticism of Israel are ascendent

“All the winning candidates share Mr. Mamdani’s progressive economic platform, and they each ran campaigns that focused intently on ending American support for Israel, a sign of how far public opinion has shifted on the issue, even in New York,” The New York Times reported. What accounts for this? Obviously, there’s outrage over Israel’s actions in Gaza, but criticizing Israel is also something of a symbol — a signal to voters that a candidate is willing to do something politically risky out of real conviction, as the Times’ Lydia Polgreen recently wrote. It’s a sign that you’re not part of an establishment that many voters see as broken.

Mamdani has real political muscle

“The results signaled that Mamdani’s sway over the city’s more liberal electorate extends even when he isn’t on the ballot,” Woodall and Thomas wrote. Still, it’s worth noting that “the races do not necessarily suggest Mr. Mamdani has expanded his appeal,” the Times noted in a piece crowning him a “kingmaker”: “Each of the contests in which he endorsed took place in areas where the mayor won comfortably in last year’s election and remains deeply popular.” And that leads us to an important caveat…

It’s important not to over-index these results, moderates are also winning

Yes, these three primaries are seismic in importance. But — and this is important — the left-wing surge was not universal in Tuesday’s primaries and was mostly limited to races where Mamdani was involved. In Utah, Ben McAdams, a moderate Dem, crushed progressive candidates who suggested the party ought to swing left in a redrawn safe-blue seat. In the battleground suburbs of New York, moderate Cait Conley won the nomination to face GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in one of the nation’s pivotal House races. This is not yet the Tea Party wave of 2010: Prior to Tuesday night, only two Dem incumbents “lost renomination and both lost thanks in large part to Texas redistricting,” per National Journal’s Hotline. But…

That is also precisely why these results are so important

So much of American politics is now nationalized. That’s true both in the sense that it’s about Trump, yay or nay, but also in the sense that when someone says something deemed outrageous, it travels with ease. (There are many reasons for this, ranging from the availability of the internet to the decline of local media, which you can read more about in this interview I did with David Shor back in 2020.) That means that moderate candidates often have to answer for the excesses of their more extreme comrades, and you better believe that the National Republican Congressional Committee is eager to make Jewish voters in Rockland County aware of what Chevalier said about Israel, even if she isn’t on the ballot there. The result of a Queens primary is potentially every battleground Democrat’s problem.