Economic success and governance failure

The objective of governance should be to achieve sustainable economic development, with significant improvements in citizens’ living conditions. So, citizens are likely to ask if their conditions are better presently than when the current government came into office. Positive response by most of the citizens implies good governance, and the converse also represents poor governance. We have to be scientific in assessing any government through an assemblage of economic and social data, as well as the results of opinion polls. That is an assignment for some NGOs in the areas of evaluation of development.

The objective of governance can be different from the objective of government. That is why we find, in many cases, the government flaunting good statistics on economic performance even when it is clear that such good economic performance is not reflected in the living conditions of the citizens. It is like when economists talk about jobless economic growth, a situation in which the GDP is increasing, but unemployment persists, or even the unemployment rate is rising.

A growing economy should necessarily lead to rising employment. It is not always so, and the government is often aware. So, the government focuses on showing rising GDP but hardly talks about employment generation. Such GDP growth is often low, discrete, and linked more to prices than outputs or productivity. Government economic advisers are more often unsure of their roles, but think that they are there to promote the good image of the government rather than to place the correct picture of the economy, for example, before the government with appropriate suggestions on what should be done to correct or improve a situation. The issue of propaganda should be left in the hands of the staff of the Ministry of Propaganda or Information.

The president, vice-president or governor is likely to respect a special or ordinary adviser who gives a true situation report with suggestions on the way forward than someone who feels he or she must be a harbinger of good tidings to keep his or her job. An adviser is expected to be an expert who can assess situations and develop plausible solutions. He needs to maintain an office where he can brainstorm with colleagues on important issues before presenting recommendations to his principal. Because we do not have respect for research outcomes in Nigeria, government advisers often give personal opinions rather than the output of deep thinking or thorough research. This must change.

The government, in assessing the state of governance, needs to be more concerned about social statistics. The government should be concerned about how many people are being taken out of poverty every year. How many jobs have been created, or what is the level of reduction in the unemployment rate in the last 24 months? How many out-of-school children have been returned to school, and how many new standard schools have been built and properly furnished in the last 12 months?

How many megawatts of electricity have been added to what was on the ground in the preceding year?  How many kilometres of roads have been completed and commissioned, and new construction inaugurated? What is the improvement in the ratio of deaths per 1,000 births? What is the new level of per capita income and the improvement in income distribution? The emerging statistics on these governance variables show that the government has not performed credibly.

What is the current level of the Human Development Index and the World Happiness Index, compared to when the government resumed? These are the true measurements of good governance, whose data are available in the international statistics books, not subject to massive manipulations to favour any government.  There is still time to turn the tables. Government expenditure must be directed at meeting basic needs as priorities in budget implementation.

It is equally good for the government to boast of economic data relating to the Gross Domestic Product, the fall in rate of inflation, the growth of external reserves, the balance of payment situations, and the exchange rates. Of course, governments will be proud to announce figures on a declining unemployment rate and a reduction in debts and debt servicing. But in the Nigerian case today, the unemployment rate is not declining, just as debts and debt servicing are taking a large chunk of our annual budgets. There was public information that the nation’s debts hit N159.28tn after new loans were contracted recently, and the IMF declined to support Nigeria to acquire more debts on the concerned for debt sustainability and repayment capacity.

One often wonders why we claim to be in good financial standing when we have foreign reserves hovering around $50bn, but external debts of over $100bn! Of course, there can be justification for optimism when we consider potential, untapped, and underexploited resources. But that does not allow us to borrow ad infinitum. It is also on record that we have recognised or reported stolen funds in many places, which the government is not pursuing for recovery and uses to fund projects instead of going to the credit market for new loans. Those are the kind of funds people like Malami would go after and convert to personal money. There was, recently, a report on a television channel of a stolen $69bn in limbo since President Buhari’s time. We may not find that money there again. Hopefully, some agencies will help us track the money.

Last week, the World Bank and the IMF revised downward the growth rate of the Nigerian economy, among others, as a result of the ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran. It is not that the Washington institutions do not recognise the benefits that can accrue to Nigeria from the increasing oil prices, but they took cognisance of our inability to meet the OPEC quota, resulting from low productivity. The government needs to focus on growth in output in the GDP ratio rather than on price increases. This should involve making sure the inflation is properly tamed from the production side. That is an assignment for the economic team of the government. They have to start taking lessons or takeaways from the war with a view to providing short, medium and long-term actions and solutions.