A word for the new finance minister

When the newly appointed Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, was first elevated to Minister of State for Finance from his previous position as the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, some of us could bet that his ultimate destination, under the current administration, would be the office he took over from Wale Edun last week.

Aside from repeated calls for coordination of fiscal and monetary policies by many analysts, the signs were clear that Oyedele’s first elevation, after a “good job” in his previous tax reform role, was for him to understudy Edun, especially with whispers that the load of responsibilities taken off the former minister and heaped on the former Minister of State, Doris Uzoka-Anite, was beyond her capacity.

There have been different opinions on the real reasons for the significant cabinet reshuffle, which also saw the exit of the former Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, who was replaced by Muttaqha Darma.

While some said Edun, a longtime ally of President Bola Tinubu, was replaced mainly on health grounds, others, who should know, linked his exit with a series of actions and disclosures that did not align with the immediate priorities of the administration, as well as the public information direction of the team.

Those who had known Edun since his younger days said they had, from the outset, harboured some reservations about him being able to conform with the diplomatic cum propaganda demands of his office under a largely criticised APC administration. Despite his solid credentials for the office, those concerns, they stressed, were necessary to swim through the strong manipulative currents linked to his office and around the President.

It was not, therefore, surprising that he ‘accidentally’ veered off the President’s lane after the latter confidently informed Nigerians, in September 2025, that the country had met its revenue target for the year, in the preceding month, even without borrowing.

“Today, I can stand before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year, and we met it in August,” Tinubu said, while addressing stakeholders of The Buhari Organisation who visited him at the Presidential Villa.

Though not a few people could tell that the realities on the ground at the time did not support the bragging mood of the President, not many also prepared for what they described as Edun’s honest but unguarded disclosure to the contrary, barely three months after.

The former minister, during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper at the National Assembly, revealed, against the President’s earlier good news, that the Federal Government would likely miss its 2025 revenue target by N30tn.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7tn, compared with the N40.8tn that was projected,” Edun told lawmakers at the House of Representatives.

While some saw this unveiled counter-narrative as a grave error on the part of a professional holding about the most important office in the Tinubu cabinet, others viewed the disclosure as a deliberate action towards preserving his integrity, having seen signs that his days might be numbered in the administration. Whatever the case was, Edun has done his part and has eventually passed on the baton.

Was he the best finance minister Nigeria has had? Definitely not. Did he try his best to reposition the economy amid the early effects of petrol subsidy removal, low external reserves related to import cover, and high debt service-to-revenue ratio, among other local and global economic constraints? Certainly!

Whether he was told to go or he resigned on health grounds, as indicated in a subsequent statement by the Presidency, it is on record that, under his watch, Nigeria recorded 3.87 per cent real GDP growth for the full year 2025, a marked improvement over the inherited 2.3 per cent; and over $50bn gross external reserves, strongest position in 13 years, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. Inflation also dropped from 28.92 per cent at the end of 2023 to about 15 per cent as of now, while the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange crossed the N100tn mark for the first time. These are tangible achievements that cannot be erased from the administration’s record.

However, the former minister’s inclination towards being defiantly “internationally correct” amid poor release of funds for capital projects and neglect of local contractors triggered serious criticism at home, even when global finance institutions praised the administration’s structural reforms and continued to highlight growth prospects. The priorities were not properly ordered, according to some economists, at a time when citizens were still grappling with the economic pains associated with the ongoing fiscal reforms.

But we have moved to a new chapter now. Edun is out, Oyedele is in. So, what next? I do not expect anything short of good performance from the new finance minister, knowing his capacity and hunger for setting new records. But I’m worried that in this part of the world, it doesn’t take time to mess brilliant professionals up, particularly those who get lost in the euphoria of power.

With his 22 years’ experience at PricewaterhouseCoopers, his relevant foundation at Yaba College of Technology and Oxford Brookes University, and executive training at the London School of Economics, Yale University and Harvard Kennedy School, among others, Nigerians should naturally look forward to a better macro-economic environment. His track record of performance in previous roles should, in fact, strengthen this optimism.

But in an election year, where excessive spending and leakages take the shine off the best of policies, Oyedele would need more than this impressive CV to tackle known and unforeseen obstacles if he has to achieve palpable results in the short term and earn a satisfactory scorecard.

How will he align political interests with urgently needed interventions? How does he ensure fiscal responsibility in a season where spending is expected to increase by more than 50 per cent and questionable demands from sensitive quarters may become a pain in the neck? What short-term stimulus plan will boost consumer demand and ensure that money gets back into the pockets of cash-thirsty Nigerians? These are puzzles to solve if the minister must remain relevant after this time out.

The task is overwhelming, no doubt. But the winning strategy, though it seems impractical, is for Oyedele to realise that his loyalty is first to Nigerians even before the President!