Fragmented opposition will struggle to stop Tinubu in 2027 — CUPP spokesperson

The Coalition of United Political Parties’ National Publicity Secretary, Mark Adebayo, in this interview with ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU, identifies the weakness of the opposition, warning that unless parties like the Peoples Democratic Party and African Democratic Congress unite, President Bola Tinubu may face little challenge in 2027

Is the Coalition of United Political Parties really still playing its role of coordinating the opposition against the ruling government?

It is fair to say that CUPP is in a self-induced coma. While it is unclear whether it can emerge from this state, its current condition appears to be largely self-inflicted. There are several challenges, but the most critical is leadership. Speaking for the coalition, there must be clear leadership. After the 2019 elections, when the former governor of Osun State, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, chaired the coalition, there was visible impact. We were active, vocal, and engaged in strong opposition activities. The Peoples Democratic Party, being the leading coalition partner at the time, even provided office space. We were energetic in the media and carried out robust opposition activism. However, after the 2019 general elections, when the PDP was declared to have lost, everything collapsed. I strongly believe that Atiku Abubakar actually won that election but was rigged out. Buhari’s first-term performance was poor, yet events turned out the way they did. The coalition, which had come together to support Atiku, was effectively abandoned. It became orphaned. At that point, it was largely through the personal efforts of my colleague—now a member of the House of Representatives, Ugochinyere Imo—that anything continued. He used his own resources to sustain activities. The media arm of the coalition remained active, but beyond that, nothing was happening—no meetings, no leadership, no structure. By 2023, when he contested elections, the responsibility fell on me. There has been no encouragement whatsoever. I have reached out to opposition figures, including former governors. At best, they commend you verbally and move on. There is no tangible support. The coalition, which has become a national megaphone for opposition voices, has been abandoned. The reality is that a coalition cannot survive on rhetoric alone. It requires structure, sacrifice, and shared responsibility. CUPP has been largely neglected by those who should sustain it. Without urgent efforts to rebuild leadership, restore unity, and provide strategic direction, it risks remaining in its current state and unable to play any meaningful role in Nigeria’s democracy.

So, is it safe to say that the opposition has not been effective or visible enough?

Well, I won’t say the opposition is completely invisible. For instance, the African Democratic Congress has been relatively active. However, many parties, including the PDP, are plagued by internal crises and factional disputes, which weaken them significantly. They have some presence, but internal divisions have undermined their effectiveness. The PDP’s refusal to zone its presidential ticket to the South in 2023 caused serious divisions, and similar issues are now emerging in the African Democratic Congress. If ADC fails to zone the presidency appropriately or fails to rally around a widely accepted candidate like Peter Obi, they risk performing even worse than in previous elections. The opposition lacks ideological clarity and engages in politics of convenience rather than strategy. Defections are driven by self-interest. Many politicians move to the ruling party while still claiming to oppose it, which weakens the opposition further. They also lack proactive strategy. They react too slowly to developments and rely heavily on social media rather than grassroots mobilisation. Effective opposition requires engagement from the grassroots upward. The ruling party understands strategy. They identify and recruit talent effectively, regardless of past criticism. The opposition does not do this. Instead, it ignores capable individuals. There is clear cronyism and discrimination within opposition leadership. A strong opposition is essential for democracy. Without it, democracy weakens. The opposition must unite, organise effectively, and build a broad-based coalition across multiple parties. Communication must also improve—public statements should be strategic and constructive, not inflammatory. Nigeria cannot function as a one-party state. A vibrant opposition is necessary to ensure accountability and balance. Ultimately, rebuilding trust with citizens and maintaining consistent engagement will determine long-term relevance.

You hold a key position in the opposition. How do you assess the current administration of President Bola Tinubu?

The country is facing serious challenges, particularly in the area of insecurity, which remains my greatest concern. Across various parts of the nation, persistent killings, kidnappings, banditry, and other violent crimes have continued to complicate the security landscape and create fear among citizens. These incidents not only threaten lives but also undermine social stability and economic productivity. While there are indications that economic reforms are beginning to yield positive results, with the economy witnessing a noticeable turnaround from what we have observed in recent times, security remains the bedrock upon which all progress must stand. Without safety, peace, and public confidence, even the most well-intentioned policies cannot achieve meaningful impact. I commend the sacrifices of our armed forces, who continue to put their lives on the line in defence of the nation. Their efforts must be strengthened through collective support, including contributions from private citizens and well-meaning individuals to assist the families of fallen heroes through structured and sustainable initiatives.

Based on your assessment and current state of the opposition, do you believe the current administration will find a 2027 re-election bid a smooth sail?

The current state of the opposition in the country gives the impression of a deeply fragmented and disorganised political force. Its internal challenges, ranging from weak coordination and lack of discipline to poor strategic planning and persistent disunity, have significantly limited its ability to function as a strong and credible alternative to the ruling party. These shortcomings continue to weaken its overall effectiveness and public perception. If the opposition hopes to mount a serious challenge to the ruling Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress, it must urgently address its internal contradictions and adopt a more inclusive and structured approach. Exclusionary politics must give way to genuine inclusivity, where diverse voices, talents, and experiences are recognised and properly integrated into decision-making processes. Building strong and functional coalitions across different political and regional interests is also essential for long-term relevance. Furthermore, the opposition must develop clear, realistic, and forward-looking strategies that can inspire confidence among its members and the wider electorate. Without a coherent vision and disciplined leadership, the tendency for key members to defect, withdraw support, or lose motivation will continue to grow. Ultimately, the survival and competitiveness of the opposition depend on its ability to reorganise itself, strengthen internal unity, and present a focused and compelling alternative agenda to the Nigerian people.

Do you have confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission to conduct free and fair elections?

INEC plays a crucial role in Nigeria’s democracy, but confidence in the system should not rest on it alone. The opposition must also act strategically to ensure accountability. There are technological and organizational methods that can safeguard electoral integrity. These include proper monitoring, deployment of party agents, and use of legal frameworks to challenge irregularities where necessary. The opposition must be proactive and well-prepared, not reactive. Ensuring credible elections is a collective responsibility. INEC must remain impartial, but political parties must also strengthen their internal systems. In addition, continuous voter education is important to ensure citizens understand their rights and responsibilities during elections. Political stakeholders should also invest in training their agents to improve efficiency at polling units. Strong coordination among party structures at all levels will further reduce loopholes that could be exploited. Furthermore, the use of transparent digital systems where applicable can help reduce manipulation and improve public confidence in the electoral process.

Some ADC leaders and other stakeholders have called for the resignation of the INEC chairman over derecognition of coalition leaders and alleged partisan, do you support this?

If the allegations are proven with credible evidence, then resignation would be appropriate in order to protect the integrity of the electoral body. Public confidence in INEC is very important for democracy. However, it is important not to rush to judgment based on allegations or political sentiment. Due process must be followed, and decisions must be based on verifiable facts. Past political affiliations alone should not automatically disqualify someone from holding public office. What matters is the ability to act impartially, uphold the law, and maintain transparency in office.