Trump returns to familiar playbook as his popularity craters ahead of midterms

This is an adapted excerpt from the April 5 episode of “Velshi.”

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If you start to notice some scrambling out of the White House — say, an executive order aimed at limiting mail-in voting, or a prime-time address to the nation, or several reports from inside the administration that they’re racking their brains to end the war in Iran, or a couple of Cabinet firings — it may be because every day is another step closer to the midterms.

The midterms are on Nov. 3, just over 200 days away, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating is sinking. A new CNN poll found that only 35% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president. That’s about as low as it gets for him, because he has a built-in base of about a third of the country that simply will not see him through a critical lens. 

In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 51% of registered voters said they want to see Democrats take control of the House in November, an 11-point lead over Republicans.

Trump’s political instincts are to address his plummeting popularity by trying to discredit the election and sow doubts about its integrity. Why not? It almost worked for him in the past.

On Tuesday, the president signed an executive order seeking to limit mail-in voting. It directed the Department of Homeland Security to create an approved list of absentee voters and forbade states from sending mail-in ballots to any voter not on that list.

In essence, it would provide the federal government with a way of preventing eligible voters from accessing absentee ballots. More than 20 Democratic-run states have already sued the government over the executive order.

As things stand, Democrats have momentum heading into November, and in the next few weeks, they have some opportunities to capitalize on that momentum.

This Tuesday, a Democrat has a chance (albeit a small chance) to flip yet another Republican-held seat.

Since Trump returned to office, Democrats have flipped 30 seats previously held by Republicans, including in New Jersey and Virginia’s legislative elections, and in other state-level special contests across the country.

In that same period, not a single Republican has flipped a Democratic-held seat.

Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, represented until January by Marjorie Taylor Greene, is holding a runoff election this week for the remainder of the Republican’s term. It’s a long shot for Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired brigadier general who challenged Greene and lost in 2024. 

His opponent, Clay Fuller, also a veteran, was endorsed early by Trump, and the pair rallied together in the district in February.

But Harris has the cash advantage, he’s running a strong ground game, and last month’s primary gave him encouraging signs. He was the top vote-getter of the night, with several Republicans splitting the rest of the votes. It was a mixed-party primary, meaning only the top vote-getters advanced to the runoff. 

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While Trump has backed Fuller, Greene, who is still relatively popular in her home district, has not endorsed anyone in this race.

Again, I remind you, this one is a long shot, but Democrats have won a few long shots recently. That we are even discussing a race in such a Republican stronghold is interesting in and of itself.

Early voting is also open in Virginia, not for a primary but for a referendum, which was triggered by Trump but may in fact benefit Democrats. On April 21, voters will decide whether Virginia engages in mid-decade redistricting. Virginia Democrats created the new map as a countermeasure to the president’s push last summer for Republican states to redraw their maps to help the party maintain its very narrow majority in the House. 

Currently, six Democrats and five Republicans represent Virginia in the U.S. House of Representatives. Under the proposed new boundaries, based on how the states voted in the 2025 governor’s election, the split could be 10 Democrats to 1 Republican. 

This one is a long shot, but Democrats have won a few long shots recently.

If Virginia voters approve that referendum, Democrats could gain four seats in the U.S. House. 

New congressional district maps passed in California and Utah also favor Democrats, while redistricting in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio favors Republicans. Taken together, all of these actions would essentially even out, meaning Virginia could be key to Democrats’ success in November. 

But things are close. According to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, 52% of likely voters said they would vote to redistrict, while 47% said they were against the referendum — that is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.

In just a few weeks, we’ll find out if Trump’s redistricting push will backfire and raise the stakes even higher for Republicans in November.

Allison Detzel contributed.

Ali Velshi

Ali Velshi is the host of “Velshi,” which airs Saturdays and Sundays on MSNBC. He has been awarded the National Headliner Award for Business & Consumer Reporting for “How the Wheels Came Off,” a special on the near collapse of the American auto industry. His work on disabled workers and Chicago’s red-light camera scandal in 2016 earned him two News and Documentary Emmy Award nominations, adding to a nomination in 2010 for his terrorism coverage.

Armand Manoukian