Key Republican super PAC eyes eight Senate races that will dictate control of the chamber

Control of Congress is on the line in this 2026 midterm elections, and when it comes to the U.S. House, Democrats have reason to be optimistic. Between the Republicans’ tiny majority and the historical pattern of the incumbent president’s party losing roughly two dozen seats in a midterm cycle, House Speaker Mike Johnson probably shouldn’t count on holding on to his gavel in early 2027.

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For Democrats, the fight for the U.S. Senate is more difficult.

As things stand, the Republican majority in the upper chamber is 53 seats, which creates a daunting, but not insurmountable, challenge for the opposition party. There will be 35 Senate contests this year (technically 33 races and two special elections), which offers Democrats a narrow path to a possible majority in the next Congress.

Of course, not all of those 35 races will be treated by the parties the same way, and in most of the contests, one candidate is seen as such a heavy favorite that neither side of the political divide will make much of an effort to invest limited resources. With this in mind, the main super PAC affiliated with the Senate Republican leadership has identified the eight races it cares about most. The New York Times reported:

The leading super PAC for Senate Republicans is unveiling a nearly $350 million plan to preserve control of the Senate, aiming tens of millions of dollars at red-leaning states including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio as the midterm elections grow more competitive.

Top officials at the group, the Senate Leadership Fund, described its spending priorities to The New York Times, revealing what Republicans see as an eight-state battleground in 2026.

For now, let’s not dwell on the fact that $350 million is an enormous amount of money and Democrats will have to find a way to keep up with comparable resources. Instead, let’s consider the Senate Leadership Fund’s list: